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CalcTortoise

Portfolio Backtest

See how a mix of shares, bonds, cash and gold actually performed on real yearly returns, through every boom and crash since 1972.

Written by the CalcTortoise editorial team · How we work

1 · When and how much

2 · Your mix

US government bonds (10-year) — the rest40%

3 · Choices

Safe part of the mix

Rebalance to your mix

Once a year: sell what grew most and buy what lagged, back to your split.

All figures are US-dollar returns, before tax and charges; they do not include currency changes against your own currency.

Value on 31 December 2025

$823,041

$190,000 put in over 30 years grew to $823,041 — 8.1% a year, or 5.4% after inflation. The worst year was 2022 (-18%).

Annual return (XIRR)
8.08%
After inflation
5.42%
Best year (1997)
23.8%
Biggest fall from a peak
-18%

Illustration only, not investment, tax or legal advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Across every 30-year stretch since 1972 (25 of them), a lump sum in this mix lost money in 0. The worst returned 8.1% a year; the best 11.9%.

The same money, all in one place

  • Your mix$823,041
  • All in shares$1.34 million
  • All in corporate bonds$523,891
  • All in government bonds$312,422
  • All in gold$1.32 million
Your mix against all in sharesYour mixAll in shares
Every start year, every length: return a year on a lump sum in this mix

Your plan — Started in 1996, held 30 years: 8.3% a year. Hover or tap any square.

Start15101520253035404550
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
Years held across, start year down.

Year by year

YearInvestedUS shares (S&P 500)Corporate bonds (Baa)US government bonds (10-year)GoldTotal value
1996$16,000$11,389$0$6,476$0$17,865
1997$22,000$18,484$0$10,384$0$28,868
1998$28,000$26,361$0$15,860$0$42,221
1999$34,000$34,620$0$17,786$0$52,407
2000$40,000$32,026$0$27,066$0$59,092
2001$46,000$34,618$0$27,425$0$62,044
2002$52,000$32,203$0$31,162$0$63,365
2003$58,000$52,933$0$27,847$0$80,781
2004$64,000$57,480$0$36,221$0$93,701
2005$70,000$62,630$0$40,993$0$103,623
2006$76,000$75,777$0$44,687$0$120,464
2007$82,000$79,945$0$55,636$0$135,581
2008$88,000$54,454$0$67,787$0$122,241
2009$94,000$96,458$0$45,712$0$142,170
2010$100,000$101,827$0$64,188$0$166,014
2011$106,000$105,341$0$79,661$0$185,002
2012$112,000$132,542$0$78,637$0$211,179
2013$118,000$171,644$0$79,065$0$250,709
2014$124,000$174,621$0$113,602$0$288,223
2015$130,000$178,947$0$119,182$0$298,129
2016$136,000$203,757$0$122,483$0$326,240
2017$142,000$242,053$0$136,586$0$378,639
2018$148,000$221,091$0$153,825$0$374,916
2019$154,000$299,340$0$166,947$0$466,286
2020$160,000$334,129$0$210,191$0$544,321
2021$166,000$423,707$0$210,447$0$634,154
2022$172,000$315,089$0$210,595$0$525,684
2023$178,000$401,697$0$220,882$0$622,579
2024$184,000$470,555$0$247,326$0$717,881
2025$190,000$510,990$0$312,050$0$823,041

Where the numbers come from

  • S&P 500 (total return) — A. Damodaran, NYU Stern, histretSP.xls (January 2026 update), sheet "Returns by year" — pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar
  • 10-year US Treasury bond (total return) — A. Damodaran, NYU Stern, histretSP.xls (January 2026 update), sheet "Returns by year" — pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar
  • Baa corporate bonds (total return) — A. Damodaran, NYU Stern, histretSP.xls (January 2026 update), sheet "Returns by year" — pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar
  • 3-month US Treasury bills — A. Damodaran, NYU Stern, histretSP.xls (January 2026 update), sheet "Returns by year" — pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar
  • Gold (US dollar price) — A. Damodaran, NYU Stern, histretSP.xls (January 2026 update), sheet "Returns by year" — pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar
  • US consumer price inflation (CPI-U, December to December) — US Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI-U via FRED (CPIAUCNS, percent change from a year ago, annual), as included in histretSP.xls, sheet "Inflation Rate"

Frequently asked questions

Which markets does this use?

US shares (the S&P 500 with dividends), US government and corporate bonds, US Treasury bills and gold, all in US dollars — the longest, most complete public record of yearly returns.

How did a 60/40 mix do?

With $10,000 at the start and $500 a month from 1996 to 2025, 60% shares and 40% government bonds grew to $823,041 (8.1% a year), against $1.34 million all in shares.

Does it allow for my currency?

No. Returns are in US dollars. If you invest from another currency, exchange-rate movements would add to or reduce these figures.

Why from 1972?

The source data begins in 1928; starting in 1972 keeps the start-year chart readable while covering the 1970s, 2000–02, 2008 and 2022.

Sources and method

Past market history replayed year by year, before tax and costs. Past returns do not promise future ones.

Rules and rates last verified . How we calculate · Editorial policy · Corrections and change log

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Last updated 9 October 2026. For information only — not financial advice. Check the final figures with your lender or bank.